Nuclear disarmament :
Hedging for Better or Worse
Bart Smedts



numero fr32
langue ukdr en

nbpage fr38




Executive Summary

Starting from the the hypothesis that nuclear disarmament would succeed in diminishing the total amount of nuclear weapons, it is worth trying to establish the consequence and the dynamics for both military and civilian applications. It is probable that the nuclear technology would be reduced to an embryonic state, comparable to what can be observed today in Iran.

What until recently was the Iranian nuclear puzzle is therefore the ideal case-study to identify the parameters influencing the dynamics driving the embryonic state towards either a full-fledged military program or a civilian and peaceful counterpart. The most probable scenario in that embryonic state would be a hedging posture for both civilian and military applications. That assumption allows for the examination of drivers for the hypothesis to materialise, what might be the consequences, who are the actors involved and which mechanism could be able to curb eventual worst case scenarios. For each one of the possible outcomes, recommendations are at hand that can benefit policy makers to avoid worst case scenarios

Keywords: hedging, scenarios, drivers, dual-use, Iran


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