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After the outbreak of the Glorious Revolution in Great Britain, as well as after the beginning of the revolutions in the United States, France and Russia, there was immediately a sense that, as a result, these countries would never be the same again. And these expectations became reality. Similarly, it is very unlikely that the Arab world will ever be the same after the Arab Spring.

Yet most of the Western revolutions were the starting point of a long period of political instability. France went through almost a century of Terror, Restoration and uprisings between the outbreak of the Revolution and the proclamation of the Third Republic. Likewise, Russia and China are still heading towards democracy. Hence, it would be naïve to believe that stable democracies would be established in the region immediately after the uprisings in the Arab world.

Therefore, can the Arab Spring be considered as some kind of Enlightenment? Probably yes, but only on the condition that the concept is understood properly, since it is unlikely that the Arab Enlightenment will be a copy of the Western Enlightenment.

According to Immanuel Kant, Enlightenment is just emancipation in the largest possible sense. It is a broad societal transition from a general tendency of heteronomous decision-making to autonomous decision-making at all levels.

Whereas with the Western Enlightenment people often experienced the Church (especially in France) as the most patronizing instance, throughout Muslim Enlightenment people perceive the West as the main oppressor. Arab dictators were backed by the West out of fear that religious violence may spring up. In contrast with Western Enlightenment, Muslims nowadays consider the clergy as liberators rather than as oppressors.

All too often the West takes it for granted that Enlightenment (as a process in the development of a people) equals religious emancipation. Yet, not only in Kant’s theory but also in most sociological and philosophical theories Enlightenment equals emancipation from whatever instance perceived as oppressive. However, as Enlightenment is a very general movement at all levels of society, once emancipation from the instances perceived as most oppressive are removed, it is highly likely that emancipation from religion will follow sooner or later.

From that perspective, the increasing affirmation of the religious identity in the Muslim world, often accompanied with the use of force, can be considered as another attempt to free itself from the West.

The main focus of this study is a speculation on the long run, with respect to the final outcome of the Arab Spring. It is a prognosis based on theoretical models and patterns of some classical authors, such as Immanuel Kant, Alexis de Tocqueville, Francis Fukuyama, Samuel Huntington, and Emmanuel Todd.

The Arab Spring is then considered as the starting point of a long search for a society in which the Arab peoples can recognise their own cultural identities.